The US Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, which serves 6,000 buyside and sellside institutions globally, has released its Systemic Risk Barometer Survey – 2026 Risk Forecast, monitoring threats to the safety, resilience and stability of the global financial system.
Geopolitical risk and trade tensions, cyber risk, and US economic slowdown were named the top risks – unchanged from 2025.
Tim Cuddihy, DTCC group chief risk officer noted respondents “also flagged concentration risks, such as heavy reliance on a few technology providers or platforms, warning that new technologies like AI and quantum computing could introduce fresh pathways for contagion and systemic events.”
The survey of more than 100 financial services professionals, including DTCC clients and national supervisory authorities, offers important insights into the evolving risks that are top of mind for financial services professionals around the globe.
Key highlights on top risks entering 2026
Risk no. 1: Geopolitical risks and trade tensions
Cited as the overall top risk, 78% of respondents included this risk in their top 5 (2025: 84%), with 35% citing it as the number one risk impacting the global financial system in 2026. This is the fourth consecutive year respondents cited geopolitical risks as the overall top risk.
Ali Wolpert, head of global government relations at DTCC, said: “To navigate this environment, risk managers must prioritise scenario planning, enhance cross-border collaboration, and maintain agility to adapt to rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.”
Risk no. 2: Cyber risk
Cyber risk was again identified as the second most frequently cited of the top 5 risks, cited by 63% of respondents—a slight decrease from 69% in last year’s survey.
Laura Deaner, chief information security officer at DTCC, noted that increasingly sophisticated threats and emerging challenges like quantum computing and digital interconnectedness continue to raise the stakes. “”To stay ahead, organizations must strengthen cyber resilience, invest in advanced detection and response capabilities, and foster a unified approach to security across the enterprise and the industry through partnerships like FS-ISAC (Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Centre).”
A separate article by Citi Investor Services points to the unprecedented nature of cyber risk, with Matthew Bax, stating: “When you think about credit loss, it is predictable, cyclical and capital backed – it is embedded into our risk frameworks. In contrast, cyber is not predictable and not fully capital based.”
Guillaume Eliet, Euroclear’s group chief risk officer adds: “In terms of spending, it is important that organisations challenge how much they spend on cyber prevention measures and detection systems versus recovery. The biggest challenge facing any organisation is their ability to recover swiftly from a cyber-attack.”
Risk no. 3: U.S. economic slowdown
U.S. economic slowdown, market volatility/sudden dislocation in financial markets, and U.S. monetary/fiscal policy uncertainty were also identified within the top 5 risks by 41% of respondents. Last year, the U.S. presidential election outcome paired with the slowdown as a top 3 risk for 48% of respondents.
Risk no. 4: Extreme weather events and climate change
This was the largest percentage decliner in this year’s survey, cited by 14% of respondents as a top 5 risk—a decrease from 30% in last year’s survey.
AI adoption risks
Cybersecurity and data protection vulnerabilities were most commonly identified as the top risks of the industry’s growing reliance on AI.
Systemic event probability
Just over half (53%) of respondents consider the probability of a high-impact systemic event in the global financial system in 2026 to be high or very high. This represents a slight decrease from 55% in last year’s survey.
Regional differences
North American respondents are more concerned with US economic slowdown, inflation, and US monetary/fiscal policy uncertainty. Respondents outside of North America are more concerned with excessive global public/corporate debt, extreme weather events and climate change, and European economic slowdown.
